On 30 November, the ABC published a news story about next November’s election in Victoria. The piece, written by state political reporter Richard Willingham, opened with the following:
“On paper, Labor should be confident that it will score an unprecedented fourth term in office when Victorian voters make their decision on Premier Jacinta Allan’s government in 12 months’ time. To win, the Coalition must secure an extra 16 lower house seats. It currently only holds 29. It is a mountain to climb. But state elections are volatile. Big swings can happen, especially against old governments.”
Yes, next November’s election is not an easy task for the opposition and its newly elected leader Jess Wilson, but I would not be surprised if Wilson gives the Allan government a real scare. I would not even be surprised if she manages to deliver what currently seems an almost impossible outcome — an electoral win.
Jess Wilson, in her short period as leader of the Liberal Party in Victoria, has broadened her political agenda to focus on issues that genuinely affect everyday voters: cost of living, health, and more. She is doing the right things, saying the right things, and is present where she needs to be if she is to shift her party’s electoral fortunes. From noisy roads to this morning’s Health Workers Union strike and demonstration at Parliament House, she listens, she observes, she talks, she turns up.
If the current Labor government and Premier Jacinta Allan believe their prospects for re-election are secure because of the Metro Tunnel, the new Western General Hospital, and other infrastructure achievements, they may be mistaken. They are also on the wrong track, in my view, when you look closely at how they have responded to Jess Wilson since her election as Opposition Leader. An intelligent, capable, fresh, active and approachable political presence — one also supported by parts of the establishment — cannot be easily neutralised through negative advertising alone, nor through repeated reminders of past and present Labor successes.
The Allan government and the Victorian branch of the Australian Labor Party need a new narrative for the future of the state, along with a more responsive approach to politics — genuine grassroots politics.
Finally, returning to the Liberals, it is not an exaggeration to suggest that Jess Wilson’s performance at next November’s state election, based on her agenda, may influence the political direction and fortunes of the federal party. The federal Liberals are currently losing votes to their left (the Teals) and to their right (One Nation). A strong outcome in Victoria — not necessarily a victory — may help quieten internal speculation about the “need” for a possible new conservative or right-leaning party in mainstream Australian politics.
